Ok, so, Steve Phillips decided to enlighten us on the best tools in the game before the start of this past season here.
Baseball is built on five tools: hitting for average, hitting for power, throwing, fielding and running. Here's a look at the players whose skills, or lack thereof, in each area could make or break their teams. Plus, to wrap everything up, there's a sixth category -- chemistry -- on the guys who have a sixth sense for creating it.
Very nice, for those who have no idea about the "tools" reference, let's give them that... But, in all my years of following baseball... and seeing scouting reports... I've never seen Chemistry. Average is obviously measured by batting average, power by slugging percentage, and throwing, fielding and running are all subjectively rated on a 2-8 scale, which amazes me, because I wonder if guys like Mo Vaughn are actually rated as 2 in running, or maybe they just let him roll around the bases... But what is "Chemistry" measured in? "Value over Replacement Eckstein?" Ahh, the rare VORE stat, gotcha Stevey, we can move on to the actual article now...
Joe Mauer, C, Twins
OK, so you were the best hitter in the AL last year, at age 23. And you play the most physically and mentally demanding position on the field. But what have you done for us lately? The Twins got career years from Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer. That won't happen again, so they need even more from Mauer.
Went .347 /.429 /.507 and combined over the past three years only Victor Martinez (154.4) and Jorge Posada (135.8) boast a higher VORP total than Mauer's 129.6, if you use VORP to quantify such things, so it's good to see Steve start us out with a strong pick for one of the "best sticks" in baseball. But really, you already acknowledge that he's playing the most demanding position, has been the best hitter in baseball before actually being old enough to rent a car... yet he's supposed to play better, lofty expectations sir...
Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels
Hmm, maybe it's the Marlin fan in me speaking, but having a team that's always battling for the postseason hardly qualifies as being "ordinary". Went .322/.347/.450, which qualifies for a good bat I suppose, but I'm sure better picks could be made. Also, call me crazy, but how can a team with such a deep and thriving minor league system "miss out" on trades or free agents... if their front office felt they needed a player, the Angels could pretty much trade for anyone if they needed them that badly...
Adam Dunn, LF, Reds
One of the most complex hitters in baseball, Dunn led the NL in K's, was second in walks and hit the seventh most home runs in 2006, yet he batted only .234. Of his 194 K's, 46 were called. If he focused on contact, he could hit 50 homers and drive in 150. Dunn has 12 sacrifice flies in five full seasons; Justin Morneau had 11 last year.
Ok, now we're just going nuts Steve... You're saying Dunn is one of the best hitters for average and say "yet he only batted .234"... C'mon Steve... you even take it further by saying almost 75% of his strikeouts were of the swinging kind... meaning they required improper use of the bat. Or maybe it's because he was using a stick... maybe that's it... maybe that's the hole in Dunn's game. Also, his lack of focus on contact is keeping him from hitting 50 homeruns and driving in 150 RBIs? Steve, c'mon, if he focused on contact alone, he wouldn't hit as many homers because he wouldn't be swinging for the fences, hence an increase in battin average, there's a reason you don't work in real baseball anymore... Also, quick thing here... Dunn is supposed to be that teams RBI guy, and you're giving him a hard time about Sac Flies... really, he's really pretty good at driving in runs without the conditional out... but maybe on his RBI singles, he should just round first and get caught going to second, maybe it's like a Sac Fly? Steve... Why?
Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees
He can't seem to find love or happiness in the Bronx. He was MVP in '05 but hasn't "earned his pinstripes" due to playoff failures. He was Player of the Month last May; by June 5 he was getting booed. A-Rod needs to hit homers, lots of 'em, every month, especially October. It's the one way he can distinguish himself from Derek Jeter.
Im gonna leave the whole "playoff failures" thing to FJM... it's what they do.. but really, I can't sit idly by and listen to the last half of that. Well, I didn't actually have to listen to it, except for that time I read it aloud, just to make sure it did indeed sound crazy... First off, A-Rod does distinguish himself from Derek Jeter in that A-Rod is one of the best players to ever play the game in every facet of offense imaginable. He's hitting homeruns at a record pace, puts up good to great batting averages and on base percentages, steals bases pretty well, though it isn't a huge part of his game (remember, he is a 40/40 guy) and hits the bajeebus out of the baseball, even when it doesn't leave the ballpark.
In terms of hitting homers in October, why does A-Rod only catch flak for this, why not Posada, or Jeter, is this like some sort of lame fraternity iniation... like Jeter and Posada already "earned their pinstripes"... so, they don't actually have to hit well in October, but A-Rod does... because he wears a pseudo-striped uniform... they're not actually "real" stripes... they're made in Taiwan.
Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pirates
In addition to the 30-plus dingers LaRoche will hit, the Bucs benefit from the residual impact he'll have on their best player. Jason Bay has put up great numbers without lineup protection the past two years, and now opponents can't pitch around him with LaRoche's big bat behind him. We'll finally find out just how good Bay can be.
Right, lemme start by saying it's a good thing Steve isn't being paid to predict things... well, wait... he is. Now, while I don't have a particular problem with LaRoche, the person... LaRoche, the muscle is another story. His career OPS+ after this season is 112... and not much better sans the 130 season with the Braves. Aside from that... he touts how good Jason Bay is in this... why not just put Jason Bay here? I mean, he hits as many if not more homers than LaRoche... and he's Canadian... so, I guess this is just Phillips picking names out of a hat or something...
Scott Rolen, 3B, Cardinals
The champs can't rely on "all Albert, all the time" this season because they don't have enough pitching. On many days they'll need to outslug opponents. That means Rolen, who hit just eight homers after the break due to his balky shoulder, has to give the Cards more power if they're going to repeat even as NL Central champs.
Ok... wait... Rolen is big on power... but hit just 8 homeruns after the break, is physically breaking down and you expected him to be the muscle on the Cards, pointing out that you're skipping Pujols... guess he's too trendy for you to pick, but A-Rod wasn't earlier? I really don't see the logic in the names you picked, I guess you just have a really big hat and lots of free time.
Ben Sheets, RHP, Brewers
In 2004 he showed the power of Clemens and the command of Maddux, fanning 264 and walking 32 in 237 IPs. Now Sheets is working his way back from injuries, and control is usually last to come. But he K'd 45 in September and walked just four. He's the difference between the Brew Crew winning the NL Central and finishing fourth.
Alright Phillips, I see your game, lead me into each section with a pretty obvious choice for each "tool" and set yourself up for failure at the end, ok, gotcha! I'll give you Ben Sheets 110% for this one, and look... no gripes!
Joel Pineiro, RHP, Red Sox
With major money invested in the rotation, the Red Sox signed failed starter Piñeiro to close. They thought his fastball would have more life in short stints, but his spring work didn't inspire, so Jonathan Papelbon went back to the pen. With Mike Timlin opening on the DL (oblique), the Sox now need Piñeiro for vital setup help.
Joel Pineiro? Ok.. we're not gonna pick Joel Zumaya, or heck Matt Lindstrom, who had a chance to close for Florida at this time and both of which hit 100mph quite often. We're not gonna go with Lincecum who was making rounds on highlight films during spring training with his heat, we're gonna go with Pineiro a guy who already lost the closer job before a real save opportunity... You know what, Im not going to dignify this one.
Scott Olsen, LHP, Marlins
Organizations try to protect young arms from big jumps in innings, but when you have an entire staff of kids, like the '06 Marlins did, you can't protect them all. Aníbal Sánchez and Josh Johnson are already hurting, so Florida needs another workhorse to take the load off Dontrelle Willis. The fiery Olsen could emerge as an ace.
Olsen, he's a head case. Can't seem to screw that thing on right when he wakes up in the morning. Regardless, we're not gonna pick his own teammate, Lindstrom, for a better arm, we're going to try to be cool and pick the former Baseball America top 100 for best arm. Also, I know it's become commonplace to call young players kids, but kids can't vote... or smoke... legally... and everyone that played for the Marlins, and MLB, in '06 could do this, and therefore were legally adults.
Carlos Beltran, CF, Mets
Andruw Jones owns many more Gold Gloves, but Beltrán's defense is far more important to the Mets than Jones' is to the Braves. Why? Beltrán plays between Moisés Alou and Shawn Green. At this point, their range is a step and a dive. The patch of grass Beltrán has to cover is much bigger than any other centerfielder's.
Beltran's defense is more important to his team, so that gives him a better glove in the ever logical mind of Steve Phillips. Don't get me wrong though, Beltran is one of the top fielders in the league, Im just waiting to be let down by the next two picks.
Victor Martinez, C, Indians
With his 18 percent rate in throwing out runners, teams will send everyone. His improvement is critical because at the start of every game, Martínez gives the Indians a major offensive advantage at catcher. He projects at .300/20/95, which would make him the top AL catcher but only about the seventh most productive first baseman.
The first thing you say about your pick for a top glove is that he's defensively weak? Next please?
Tigers pitchers
A lasting memory from the 2006 Series is of Tigers pitchers throwing wildly to first and third bases. As isolated incidents, the errors aren't a big deal. In the Series they were huge, like Tony Romo's dropping the snap in the NFL playoffs. We'll know the Tigers are over it only when the pitchers make several plays after an error.
Realizing that Steve Phillips now decides to use the "lack thereof" argument, Im gonna have to take a different angle on this on. First of all, way to go turning the "Tigers Pitchers" into one entity, but really, if there defense wasn't a liability throughout the regular season, who's to say it wasn't just bad luck; e.g. Tony Romo's (Man I'm jealous of him) dropped snap? Also... WTF is up with saying that they'll be over it only after several plays after an error. Manny Ramirez makes several plays after an error, and sometimes they're errors too... and when they're not, he's still a poor fielder.
There was talk in Rays camp of batting Crawford second and Delmon Young third. Young walked only once in 126 ABs in '06 and, according to STATS, swung at 68.7 percent of the pitches he saw, the highest percentage in a decade. That's like giving Crawford, just the eighth player in history to steal 200 bases before age 25, a stop sign.
Alright, obvious choice first, you're getting predictable on me Steve, but you gave me something to work with. First of all, Stolen Bases doesn't mean you're not fast, or a poor baserunner. Look up Eric Reed of the Florida Marlins. One of the fastest guys I've seen, BP rates him very highly in that too... but he doesn't get on base often enough (In the majors, at least) to steal many bases. So Carl Crawford, keep stealing bases and being fast. And Steve? In baseball, there are times when coaches can tell batters to take a pitch if they want a player to steal a base.
Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers
L.A. hit the second fewest homers in the NL last season, then lost J.D. Drew and his 20 jacks. That makes Furcal even more important in manufacturing runs. He thinks about the extra base every time he makes contact, which puts pressure on the defense. Furcal's game defines the Dodgers: feisty, aggressive and very fast.
Feisty-ness... that's how we define the Dodgers... not great pitching, great prospects, but feisty! Also, last time I checked, 20 homeruns aren't that big a deal, but 20 HRs guarantee at least 20 RBIS, taking an extra base does not.
Alfonso Soriano, CF, Cubs
Sure, he could steal 40 bags again, but this year Soriano's speed is essential on D. The ex-2B doesn't get good reads or breaks. Plus, center-fielders handle the ball more than corner guys, and Wrigley Field, with its sun and wind, isn't the Friendly Confines for outfielders. Add it all up, and Soriano will need to outrun his mistakes.
Well, Soriano is fast, and speed is usually essential for CFers. But this seems more like Phillips just wanted to throw in a big free agent signee name that was floating around. Apparently he wants to be trendy now.
Bob Wickman, RHP, Braves
Because they sit in the bullpen and work one inning at a time, it's not often that closers are team leaders. But there are many things about Wickie that his teammates admire. He cares more than most, he knows more than most and he makes sense when he speaks. Plus, he has overachieved with mediocre stuff.
Whoa! A crappy pick first! I'm astounded Steve, I zigged when I should have zagged, that was a real knee-buckler you threw me there. On a more satirical note, I admire Wickie's ability to carry that weight with him to the mound without running out of breath. But really, if being a leader meant "making sense when... speak(ing)" then I guess my local second grade class just metriculated a bunch of leaders. Also, what does Bob Wickman know more than most? The calorie content of cheeze doodles? VORE: 0.21*
Eric Chavez, 3B, A's
Last season, forearm problems sapped Chavez's strength and power. Many players would have opted out of the lineup to protect their stats, but Chavez knew the team needed his D, leadership and whatever offense he could provide. The A's made the playoffs by taking on the personality of their gritty and determined third baseman.
I don't know what to think when I read that. Personally, I can't think of many players that "protect their stats". Also, if forearm problems sapped him of his hitting ability, would it not be reasonable to assume it hurt his D too? Using simple logic, I would figure that Chavez knew he could play, and was better than anything else the A's had to replace him, injury or not. Also, the A's made the playoffs because they were a good team, not because they somehow managed to co-op the personality of Eric Chavez. VORE: 0.50*
Ron Washington, manager, Rangers
He's considered the best teammate ever by those who played with him and the best coach ever by those who have played for him. He makes each person feel special and is a master at uniting a club. Look for the type of impact in Texas that Joe Girardi had as a rookie manager in Florida. Just expect Washington to be around longer.
He makes each person feel special? Is he a major league coach or a kindergarten teacher? I don't pick my managers based on how "special" they make people feel, I pick them based on game management skills. No beef with Ron Washington, just sayin' VORE: 0.67*
*VORE is measured in fraction of a whole unit, because nobody can bring the grit, determination or chemitry boost of a David Eckstein.
Steve Phillips, former general manager of the New York Mets, is a regular on ESPN's Baseball Tonight.
WHY?
2 comments:
I feel like I have to say this... Until recently, say, last year, Manny Ramirez was actually a decidedly average fielder. He would usually be at, just above or just below the league average in range factor, and, in full seasons as a fielder, was averaging about 10 assists and 200+ put-outs a season, with a high fielding % to boot. I won't deny that, because he's over that 33-34+ hill, his defensive skills are definetly starting to decline... but I don't know if he's at the level of "poor fielder" just yet.
Ramirez also plays in a much smaller, albeit tricky left field than most... so he has less ground to cover. Certainly he hasn't been a huge liability in LF, but the Sox could probably do better defensively, fairly easily.
Post a Comment